The NBA postseason is now here. And every first-round series has its own special narrative. In this article, you will see a breakdown and analysis of all the games, key stats, and the predictions for who will advance to the second round.
Eastern Conference
(4) Pacers vs. (5) Bucks — Pick: Pacers in 7
- Key Stats: The Pacers are top 5 in fast-break points (18.1 PPG) and (over 50 PPG) in the paint.
- Why It Matters: Milwaukee has some talent, don’t get me wrong, but with their second best scorer out (Damian Lillard) with deep vein thrombosis it will be hard for the Bucks to generate offense only from Giannis. Good news is that Dame will likely be back for game 2. But Indiana’s speed and depth wears so many defenses down. Plus, Halliburton is healthy again and back to his fantastic All-Star level play making.
Prediction: It will be a close game, but Indiana’s pace and their offensive depth will give them the slight advantage over the Bucks.
(1) Celtics vs. (8) Magic — Pick: Celtics in 5
- Key Stats: Boston is ranked top 5 both in offensive and their defensive rating, which is extremely impressive. They also lead the league in 3-pointers made per game.
- Why It Matters: Orlando has a strong defense, which is ranked in the top 10. But they really struggle to score consistently on the offensive end. Which is a must in the playoffs. But I think the Celtics’ experience and the spacing they create should dominate against the Magic.
Prediction: The Magic steal a game early, but Boston under Tatum and Brown is too strong, they take the win in 5 games.
(3) Knicks vs. (6) Pistons — Pick: Knicks in 6
- Key Stats: The Knicks have a top 3 defense in opponent field goal percentage and are also one of the best rebounding teams, due to their size.
- Why It Matters: Detroit won 3 out of the 4 meetings in the regular season, but that was before New York’s role players were healthy. I’m not saying Detroit is a bad team, they are a good well-rounded team, but they’re going up against a powerhouse like the Knicks, and all the talent they have is going to overload them on both ends of the floor. Jalen Bruson and Mikal Bridges will control the flow, while Josh Hart and OG Anunoby will clamp down heavily defensively.
Prediction: The Knicks will take down Detroit in 6 games, using their toughness and depth.
(2) Cavs vs. (7) Heat or Hawks — Pick: Cavs in 4
- Key Stats: Cleveland has a top 3 defensive rating and fewest points allowed per game.
- Why It Matters: It doesn’t matter if it’s Miami or Atlanta, neither team has the offensive consistency to open up Cleveland’s elite defense for an entire series. Donovan Mitchell can easily drop a causal 30-point game all the time. Although the Cavs are a good team the Heat can make things happen even without Jimmy Butler, but I highly doubt that.
Prediction: The Cavs sweep the Heat/Hawks because of their phenomenal defense.
Western Conference
(4) Nuggets vs. (5) Clippers — Pick: Nuggets in 7
- Key Stats: Nikola Jokić is averaging a triple-double (29.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 10.2 APG) that is surreal. They also have the no. 1 field goal percentage (50.6%).
- Why It Matters: The Clippers have talent in Kawhi, Harden, and Simmons, but Denver’s chemistry and Jokic’s feel of the game cannot be met by any team or player. Both teams are experienced, but Denver is more stable as a whole.
Prediction: There is going to be a game 7, and the altitude is going to be the difference. Denver advances.
(7) Warriors vs. (2) Rockets — Pick: Warriors in 6
- Key Stats: Golden State leads all playoff teams in 3-point shots taken and makes. Houston also has a top 4 defensive rating (109.6) and they also have the 2nd youngest team (25 years-old).
- Why It Matters: The Rockets are a young and special team, but playoff basketball is different. Going up against the Warriors with veterans such as: Steph, Draymond, and Butler is a tough task, since they know how to win tough games and tear apart defenses.
Prediction: Houston will make it interesting, but the Warriors experience and shooting ability will come out on top in 6 games.
(6) Lakers vs. (3) Timberwolves — Pick: Lakers in 6
- Key Stats: The Lakers are top 5 in clutch scoring since the All-Star break, and Luka Dončić has averaged 28.2 PPG on 45% field goal percentage since he joined the team.
- Why It Matters: Minnesota’s defense is ranked 6th in the NBA and they are a legit team offensively, but Luka + Lebron = problems for everybody in the West. Lakers in 5 (It’s a meme).
Prediction: Minnesota will fight hard, but LA’s clutch shot-making in the closing stages of games will crush the Timberwolves.
(1) Thunder vs. (8) Mavs or Grizzlies — Pick: Thunder in 5
- Key Stats: OKC is #1 in net rating (+13.5) highest in NBA history, they have also led opponents under 110 PPG all season.
- Why It Matters: SGA is an MVP contender. Whether it is the Mavs or the Grizzlies, OKC’s defense and their balance all-round will be too much for them to handle.
Prediction: The Thunder will drop one game on the road but will definitely dominate the series overall.